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Flaking happens because saying yes costs nothing. Fix it by having people promise their share with a saved card, with no charge unless the plan's goal fills by its date. The people who won't promise are the ones who were going to flake anyway, and now you know before you've booked, not after.

Flaking is a design problem, not a people problem

Your friends aren't flaky on purpose. It's that group plans ask for a yes when a yes is free, and collect the money later when everyone's attention has moved on. The cost of bailing is basically zero, so plans quietly shrink between "we should totally do this" and the day it's supposed to happen.

Turn the yes into a promise

1. The organizer creates a table and sets a goal with an end date: the total the plan needs, by when.
2. Each person picks Promise and saves a card. Nothing is charged, and there's no fee to promise.
3. Everyone sees the same goal fill up: who has promised, who hasn't yet, and how close it is.
4. If the goal fills by its date, the promised cards are charged and the money lands with the organizer. If it doesn't fill, nobody is charged.

The flakes filter themselves out, early and painlessly

Here's the quiet part: you don't have to confront anyone. The person who was going to flake just doesn't promise. No argument, no awkward "are you actually coming" text; they self-select out at the planning stage, when it costs the group nothing. The people who promised are the real ones, and the plan is sized to them from the start.

And because a promise can be taken back until the goal fills, an honest "I can't make it anymore" early on is fine: they tap Take back, no card is charged, no drama. What you've stopped is the silent flake, the person who never says no and never pays. That move stops working when the promise is a saved card everyone can see.

When the goal fills and the cards are charged, the money goes to the organizer and the whole group sees the record. It's the same idea as getting people to commit to a trip, aimed straight at the flake problem.